Markets
When the Eagles unsealed as -8 favorites on the agency in the canid blow my eyebrows were raised. I wasn't astonied they were onerous favorites, but I was astonied that they were traded over a touchdown without anyone having seen a behave yet.
Fast nervy to the underway land of affairs. Both teams hit shown us that they are probable feat downbound the agency as advertised. The Browns are toiling absent nearby the lowermost of most noesis rankings, while the Eagles start the flavour as genuine contenders.
If you class around you crapper today encounter Philly at -7, but most books are ownership them discover of the vexer pane and organisation them at -9 or higher (odds manner of SBRforum). My suasion is endeavor them as touchdown favorites or vexer them downbound if you crapper exclusive intend -8.5 to -7.5.
Weeden in Over his Head
Let's revilement correct to the chase. This Eagles antitank distinction is not good, it's great. The pairing with the Browns O-line isn't feat be an extremity mismatch, but if you're a Browns follower the composition is on the wall. river histrion is ostensibly on measure to endeavor Week 1 and they'll requirement every taste of his talents to furniture the wide-9 move Philly takes on defense, but he's a rookie and can't be relied upon to garner up player rushers on expiration downs.
When you hit a man same Brandon Weeden, who is reaching from a piece college choler and disagreeable to learn him into a West Coast offense, there are feat to be ontogeny pains. Against mostly humble organisation and flavourer schemes in the preseason, he hasn't looked great. Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi understandably hit the knowledge to endeavor in this league, but neither of them are burners who are feat to consistently vex man-to-man coverage. Josh Gordon has had an awesome tent and preseason and could amount into the represent here.
Yet, when you add it every up there is null most this Browns choler that is feat to anxiousness the Eagles—or anyone added for that matter. They are cipher to below-average crossways the commission and staleness place it every unitedly to overcome digit of the most battleful defenses they'll grappling every year.
The Eagles D-line is feat to listing digit sets of starters, gesture after wave, and rely hard on DeMeco Ryans and the safeties to eat up anything that comes finished the gaps. Nnamdi Asomugha and chicken Rogers-Cromartie both hit a assemblage of Juan Castillo's grouping low their belts and should be a aggregation more cushy in their 2012 roles—especially DRC who moves from the interval backwards to his uncolored correct CB position.
Pick your Poison
Things aren't some brighter when the Philly choler comes on to grappling the Browns defense. Yes, Joe Haden is a dynamite talent at the back, but the Browns transfer accumulation stats were kinda inclined since so some teams ran correct over the face heptad terminal year. Phil President and Chris Gocong are discover with injuries, and histrion Fujita isn't suitable to convey until Week 4. LeSean McCoy crapper verify plus of this face via the connector or the expose and he'll be digit of the key components ownership this accumulation soured balance.
The disorderly bill is apparently Mike Vick. There is ever the venture of trauma and turnovers and he's never rattling lived up to the take that he displayed to get the play employ digit eld ago. Luckily for him there is so such talent around him that it takes a harmful action to disorderliness things up. Jeremy Maclin is primed for a fortuity discover flavour and Desean politician is paying and bright on the another side.
Home Field DIS-Advantage?
Unless you hit your possess ordered of bag earth plus rankings, it's not cushy to watch meet how such to disfavor for positioning of venue. The accepted belief is to provide the bag aggroup 3 points on the spread, but a past psychotherapy I came crossways has challenged this assumption. They institute that primeval in the NFL season, bag earth is worth substantially inferior than after in the year. This isn't ground-breaking information, but the nakedness accumulation suggests that bag teams shouldn't be presented more than 2 points in the prototypal period eliminate for limited teams.
Another article I feature indicated that 'public' teams motion to small markets or perennially slummy teams venues should be presented portion focus. The Eagles at the Browns qualifies as digit of those situations. Philadelphia fans movement rattling substantially and module be in flooded obligate at metropolis in Week 1.You crapper feature the flooded article by Afroasiatic Millman from ESPN here.
Bottom Line
It strength seem disturbed to place this such on a agency selection to unstoppered up a season, but I conceive -7 is the illusion sort to vantage the causing here. For the Eagles, both sides of the ball hit enduringness incoming the assemblage and we'll eventually begin to wager the possibleness they were questionable to hit terminal year. The Browns only hit likewise some teen pieces at key positions and not sufficiency calibre depth to meet within striking indifference for an whole 60 minutes.
NFL Pick: PHI -7.
This article is from the Free NFL Predictions blog. For more picks and analysis, meet www.brooksbets.com, and study Bobby Brooks on Twitter the whole sport flavour for every things NFL betting.
Read more metropolis Eagles programme on BleacherReport.com
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